Los Angeles mayoral race between Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt heading to runoff
With less than two weeks to go before the city's crowded primary, polls point to incumbent Karen Bass and reality star Spencer Pratt emerging as the top two heading into a November runoff.
Objective Facts
With less than two weeks to go before the city's crowded primary, polls point to incumbent Karen Bass and reality star Spencer Pratt emerging as the top two heading into a November runoff. Emerson College polling from May 2026 put Bass at 30 percent, Pratt at 22 percent and Raman at 19 percent, with undecided voters dropping sharply. Pratt, who starred in MTV's The Hills and is a registered Republican running for mayor as an independent, has leaned heavily into attacks over the 2025 Palisades Fire and the ongoing Sandy Fire, making disaster management a central dividing line in the contest. Bass and her allies are trying to set up a head-to-head race in November against Pratt, rather than facing a more nuanced campaign against her chief progressive rival, 44-year-old city councilwoman Nithya Raman. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.
Left-Leaning Perspective
Left-leaning outlets and Democrats have focused heavily on characterizing Pratt as an unqualified Republican threat to progressive governance. Councilmember Nithya Raman has explicitly framed the runoff choice in a CBS News interview as between herself, with a progressive vision for an affordable Los Angeles, or "a MAGA Republican who's a conspiracy theorist who has never held public office and has never shared any plans for how he's actually going to implement the change that he talks about." NPR and LAist reported that Pratt has amplified outlandish artificial intelligence videos and talks about nonexistent "super meth" plaguing the city's streets and pushed false narratives about California lawmakers' response to the Palisades Fire. Mayor Bass herself has adopted a dismissive tone toward Pratt's appeal, with Bass telling MS NOW that she believes "he is tapping into a general sense of anger that people have, not just in Los Angeles, but in many other places around our country." Progressive critics argue Pratt's viral social media success masks his lack of substance and dangerous ideas. Some Democrats have dismissed Pratt's internet virality, saying that the majority of users cheering for him online don't live in Los Angeles and won't have a say in the upcoming mayoral primary. Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo told CNN that "Being louder doesn't necessarily mean that there's actual support for him in the city of L.A." The left's analysis emphasizes that "the more voters who know that Trump is supporting his candidacy, the more difficult it's going to be for Pratt to reach out beyond a Republican conservative base," according to USC political analyst Dan Schnur. Left-leaning coverage downplays the notion that Pratt represents a genuine populist movement, instead portraying him as a Trump-style provocateur exploiting anger without offering real solutions. They emphasize his Republican machine backing while he claims to be nonpartisan, and his past controversies on reality television.
Right-Leaning Perspective
Right-leaning outlets and conservative commentators have portrayed Pratt as a refreshing outsider voice breaking through Democratic dominance in Los Angeles politics. Rolling Stone reported that conservatives have lauded Pratt for his performance during the city's recent mayoral debate, as well as for his campaign videos — particularly a superhero-themed AI one that has gone viral. Los Angeles Republican Party Chair Roxanne Hoge told NBC News that Pratt is the first candidate to make a serious challenge to the Democratic "status quo" in years, saying "Here's why people in L.A. are actually excited: because he is actually diagnosing the problem. He is saying out loud, 'The emperor has no clothes, and I can see, I can see that. Can you all see it?' And then he is prescribing solutions for that problem." Conservative figures including Jeb Bush wrote Pratt's AI video was "Maybe the best political ad of the year," Matt Gaetz called it "basically a maximalist expression of what political ads can do," and Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrote "This is fantastic." Conservatives emphasize Pratt's direct communication style and his ability to connect with frustrated voters over concrete issues like homelessness and public safety. Podcaster Joe Rogan said he would vote for Pratt if he lived in LA. Kristin Cavallari, a co-star from his "The Hills" days, has been one of Pratt's most vocal celebrity supporters, framing him as an outsider willing to challenge the political establishment and saying on her podcast "I think Spencer running for mayor is f------ genius" because "everyone in politics — I don't care what side you're on — everyone is corrupt." Trump himself and media figures aligned with Trump, including podcaster Joe Rogan and Fox News host Greg Gutfeld, have offered praise. Right-leaning coverage emphasizes Pratt's outsider status and his willingness to criticize both progressive and establishment Democratic failures in managing LA's crises, while downplaying concerns about his lack of experience or the Republican infrastructure backing his ostensibly nonpartisan campaign.
Deep Dive
The Bass-Pratt runoff scenario represents a paradox in Los Angeles politics: the unpopular Democratic incumbent's best path to re-election may be facing a Republican outsider in a city where Democrats outnumber Republicans 4-to-1. Los Angeles' 43rd mayor is facing the kind of re-election battle royale incumbents almost never endure. Bass is trying to defend drops in homelessness and violent crime, but the 2026 election arrives at a troubled time not just for the mayor, but the entire region; April's UCLA Luskin Quality of Life Index found that county residents are less satisfied than at any time in the survey's 11-year history. The Palisades Fire of early 2025 crystallized voter anger, and wildfires have become one of the most emotionally charged issues shaping voter perceptions, with Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades Fire, repeatedly attacking Bass's leadership and framing the disaster as a failure of preparedness and response. The left's critique that Pratt is all noise and no substance has some factual grounding—he amplifies outlandish AI videos and pushes false narratives about California lawmakers' response to the Palisades Fire. However, the right's observation that the race has crystallized around Bass's incumbency record and voter frustrations over homelessness, public safety and wildfire response identifies real grievances driving his rise. The disagreement centers on whether those grievances justify an unvetted candidate or whether they're being exploited. What the left underestimates is how much Pratt's ability to be raw and provocative, betting that authenticity is the coin of today's political realm resonates in a demoralized electorate. What the right overlooks is the structural math: Trump lost the county of Los Angeles by 33 points in 2024, and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the city by about a four-to-one margin. The critical unknown is whether a November runoff would break along partisan lines despite the nonpartisan ballot, or whether Bass's unpopularity is deep enough to overcome party registration. Bass is arguing that Los Angeles is at a turning point under her leadership, with homelessness finally starting to decline and homicides falling to their lowest level in nearly 60 years; against the right opponent, she would likely enter the November election as the underdog despite her incumbent status, but if she remains unpopular, her best chance might be against Spencer Pratt. The next weeks will test whether Pratt can expand beyond his core base of Trump supporters and internet-energized voters, or whether once voters narrow the field, the fact that Spencer is a registered Republican will be reasons one, two and three for Democrats to reject him.
