Texas Senate

Current: Rafael Edward Cruz (R)

While 2026 is not an election year for Cruz's Class I seat, the 2024 results showing Trump significantly outperforming Cruz in border counties signal potential weakness in his 2030 reelection, particularly among Hispanic voters in South Texas who may be concerned about border management. Cruz's approval rating of 52% (Morning Consult) and net approval of +4 (Newsweek, October 2025) represent moderate strength for a Republican in Texas, but are lower than his 2024 election victory margin would suggest. Strategic Democratic recruitment may focus on border security credentials and local economic issues heading toward 2030.