Governor

📊 Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 7.5 points in RealClearPolling average (49.5% to 42.0%). Emerson College polling from January found Abbott with 8-point lead (50% to 42%), with 8% undecided.

Texas remains solid Republican in gubernatorial contests, with Abbott maintaining commanding leads in polling. The race reflects broader state partisan lean favoring Republicans, though some erosion in Abbott's approval numbers suggests economic concerns and recent policy controversies are creating modest headwinds.

Last updated: Apr 11, 2026

U.S. Senate (Class 2)

📊 Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 in general election polling; Paxton trails Talarico 47-45, suggesting a close race regardless of who the GOP nominates. The Texas Senate race will be highly competitive, driven by Talarico's broad approval and Cornyn and Paxton's general election liabilities

The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the 2026 Texas Senate race from solid Republican to likely Republican as the contentious GOP primary between Cornyn and Ken Paxton rages on. While Paxton appears more vulnerable against Democrats than Cornyn in general election polling, the dynamic has made Democrats more hopeful about their chances in the Lone Star State, which has not seen a Democrat win statewide since 1994.

Last updated: Apr 11, 2026

Rafael Edward Cruz

While 2026 is not an election year for Cruz's Class I seat, the 2024 results showing Trump significantly outperforming Cruz in border counties signal potential weakness in his 2030 reelection, particularly among Hispanic voters in South Texas who may be concerned about border management. Cruz's approval rating of 52% (Morning Consult) and net approval of +4 (Newsweek, October 2025) represent moderate strength for a Republican in Texas, but are lower than his 2024 election victory margin would suggest. Strategic Democratic recruitment may focus on border security credentials and local economic issues heading toward 2030.

Last updated: Apr 10, 2026