senateActiveNov 3, 2026
Senate
Likely R★ Flip Potential
James TalaricoD43.5%vsKen PaxtonR43%vsJohn CornynR41%
📊 Talarico leads both potential Republican opponents by narrow margins within polling error. Against Cornyn: Talarico 43%, Cornyn 41%. Against Paxton: Talarico 44%, Paxton 43%.— Impact Research, 2026-03-17
Texas holds significant strategic value despite being reliably Republican. Democratic success would be historic—the party hasn't won statewide since 1994. With negative approval ratings for both top Republican candidates, Democrats see a genuine opportunity if the political environment shifts.
Last updated: Apr 6, 2026