specialActiveNov 3, 2026
Special Election
Likely R
Jennifer JenkinsDvsJoshua WeilDvsHector MujicaD38%vsAlexander 'Alex' VindmanOvsAngie NixonD37.5%vsAlex VindmanDvsAshley MoodyR46%
📊 Moody leads Vindman by 8 points in most recent polling (46%-38%)— Emerson College Polling, 2026-03-29
This special election will determine party control of a Senate seat in Florida, a key state that has shifted significantly toward Republicans. While currently held by the GOP with an incumbent advantage, Democratic entrance of well-funded candidate Alex Vindman prompted Sabato's Crystal Ball to downgrade the race from safe Republican to likely Republican, indicating some competitive potential if Democrats achieve strong midterm conditions.
Last updated: Apr 6, 2026