Mearsheimer: U.S. Losing Unwinnable Iran War

Mearsheimer argues that the Trump administration was dragged into an unwinnable war by Israel, and emphasizes that it is almost impossible to see how Israel and the US can win this war. He contends the U.S. and Israel failed to achieve a quick decisive victory and are now in a protracted war of attrition that Iran is well-positioned to prevail in.

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Mearsheimer: U.S. Losing Unwinnable Iran War

Mearsheimer argues that the Trump administration was dragged into an unwinnable war by Israel, and emphasizes that it is almost impossible to see how Israel and the US can win this war. He contends the U.S. and Israel failed to achieve a quick decisive victory and are now in a protracted war of attrition that Iran is well-positioned to prevail in.

Mar 21, 2026
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Key Points
The US is not winning against Iran and started a war it cannot win.
Israel and its powerful lobby in the US dragged the Trump administration into this war.
The war has become a war of attrition that the Iranians prepared for and are in an excellent position to prevail in.
The U.S. has no off-ramp, no decisive victory possible, and no leverage to force Iran to stop, with no plausible story about how the war ends.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering the largest energy supply shock in decades, which will only get worse.
Perspective

Mearsheimer's analysis frames the crisis as driven primarily by Israeli interests rather than genuine American security concerns. This reflects a realist international relations perspective that emphasizes great power behavior and structural incentives over ideological or humanitarian considerations.