Trump's threats against Mexico intensified after he captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026, when Trump told Fox News that "Something's going to have to be done with Mexico," claiming drug cartels were running Mexico and that Sheinbaum was "very frightened of the cartels". At the March "Shield of the Americas" summit convened at Trump's Florida golf club with leaders of Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago, Trump directly targeted Sheinbaum, claiming "the cartels rule Mexico," while Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia—which together account for more than 60 percent of the region's GDP and population—were deliberately excluded. Trump has repeatedly offered to send the U.S. military after cartels, but Sheinbaum has always declined.

While Sheinbaum is steadfastly opposed to a U.S. military attack against cartels in Mexico, her government under pressure from Trump has taken a more proactive and aggressive approach to combating criminal organizations, as demonstrated by the recent military operation targeting Nemesio Rubén "El Mencho" Oseguera, the now deceased leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. However, El Mencho's death is expected to cause power vacuums and narco-turf wars, underscoring Sheinbaum's political gamble, with analysts warning that what occurred will bring instability within the Jalisco cartel structure and regarding other smaller criminal groups operating across Mexico. A coalition whose central stated commitment is to use "lethal military force" against cartels is not congruent with Sheinbaum's condemnation of U.S. attacks targeting alleged drug boats; she has advocated arresting suspected drug traffickers at sea rather than killing them.

The core debate centers on whether security cooperation must include boots-on-the-ground U.S. military intervention to be effective. Right-leaning voices argue Trump must act unilaterally if Mexico continues to refuse overt military collaboration. Left-leaning analysts contend that Mexico's independent action—though perhaps imperfect—preserves sovereignty and that U.S. military occupation would destabilize the region and push Mexico toward adversaries like China. Experts suggest U.S. intervention in Mexico remains unlikely because Mexico is already doing much of what the U.S. demands and is a critical economic partner, but Trump's rhetoric creates persistent pressure and political risk for Sheinbaum if violence continues to escalate.

Left-leaning coverage uses language of threat and imperialism—"invasion," "bullying," "imperial aggression"—depicting a rules-based order under assault. Right-wing coverage employs language of strength and necessity—"regime change," "wildly successful," "precision operations"—framing U.S. action as justified counter-terrorism. The left emphasizes vulnerability and violation of sovereignty; the right emphasizes American power and the failure of weaker nations to act.