Senate Race Results Across Six States in Primary Elections
Democratic establishments defeated progressive challengers in key Senate primaries across six states, reshaping midterm dynamics in races Democrats hope to flip.
Objective Facts
Six states — California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico — held primary elections on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek decisively won the Democratic Senate primary against progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls, with Turek securing 62.6% of the vote. Wahls, positioned as the more progressive candidate, campaigned alongside U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and criticized Turek for support from the VoteVets super PAC, an organization affiliated with Senate Democratic leadership and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Rep. Ashley Hinson won the Republican primary with Trump's endorsement and characterized Turek as a 'liberal' who 'has been masquerading as a good old Iowa moderate.' In Montana, Trump-backed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme won the Republican Senate primary after retiring Sen. Steve Daines recruited Alme for his seat and worked to bring President Donald Trump on board, with Alme filing to run in March and Daines withdrawing his own candidacy just minutes before the state's filing period closed. In Iowa's gubernatorial race, businessman Zach Lahn defeated Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra in the GOP primary by less than 1 point, marking President Trump's first major primary loss of the 2026 midterm election cycle. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in order to win control of the Senate in 2026, which means the party has to defend every seat it currently holds and flip four more on highly competitive and even outright Republican terrain, with Iowa representing one such opportunity.
Left-Leaning Perspective
VoteVets, the outside spending group, took a victory lap after Turek's victory, with senior adviser Paul Eaton saying 'Josh knows firsthand what it means to fight through adversity. That's a quality veterans know well — and we are proud to stand behind him' and noting that 'with our country at war and prices soaring, our nation needs Josh in the Senate more than ever.' Democratic operatives and outlets framed Turek's win as a validation of moderate pragmatism over progressive ideology. Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand jointly stated that Turek's nomination 'puts the Iowa Senate seat firmly in play,' praising his ability to work across the aisle and build a reputation in the legislature. University of Iowa political science professor Timothy Hagle noted that 'the big fight right now among the Democrats is who's more electable,' explaining that 'Republicans want Wahls because he's so far to the left that it's going to probably turn off the no-party voters,' while 'a lot of Democrats are saying, We need Turek because we need to have a fighting chance at this election.' Progressive supporters of Zach Wahls, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, argued that his message offered authentic anti-establishment credentials. Warren said in a statement announcing her May 10 visit to a Wahls rally in Des Moines that 'Zach Wahls is running to shake things up.' Wahls was seen as the more progressive candidate endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren and promised not to support Schumer as the party's leader if elected, writing in a Substack post on Monday before the primary: 'My primary opponent is Chuck Schumer's choice. But this seat doesn't belong to them — it belongs to the people of Iowa.' However, despite this enthusiasm, Turek's victory margin of 25 points indicated that most Iowa Democratic primary voters prioritized electability over ideological purity in a red state. Left-leaning coverage largely omitted discussion of why Turek's financial advantage—funded by outside groups aligned with party leadership—might undermine claims of grassroots support or the progressive argument that dark money distorts primary outcomes. Outlets focused on economic grievances benefiting Democrats (tariffs, Iran war) without examining whether these conditions would overcome Iowa's fundamental Republican lean.
Right-Leaning Perspective
Trump-backed Randy Feenstra's loss in Iowa's gubernatorial primary was analyzed by RedState, noting that Feenstra 'leaned hard into the president's agenda on border security, tax cuts, energy, and agriculture, and still came up short,' losing by roughly 1,600 votes despite being outspent by nearly $1 million. Right-leaning outlets portrayed the Hinson victory as Trump-backed and framed it as a test of Trump's power in Iowa politics. MS NOW noted that 'the projected defeat of Rep. Randy Feenstra, Trump's endorsed candidate, in the GOP primary for governor was an early sign of just how unpredictable voters may be in Iowa this year,' observing that 'Trump's endorsement has essentially been the gold standard in Republican politics. But not this time.' Conservative outlets emphasized the threat posed by Iowa Democrat Rob Sand in the gubernatorial race and argued that Hinson represented the best Republican hope. Rightward media coverage of the Iowa Senate race focused on Turek's reliance on outside money from groups tied to Chuck Schumer and highlighted Wahls' own attacks on Schumer as proof of the establishment's manipulation. NBC News reported that Wahls noted 'how VoteVets has aligned with Senate Democratic leadership in the past, he framed Turek as an extension of a party establishment led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.' Turek 'received nearly $10 million in spending from VoteVets,' a spending pattern highlighted in GOP attacks. Right-leaning outlets amplified this narrative to undermine Turek's credibility despite his moderate positioning. Right-leaning coverage downplayed or omitted Trump's narrow gubernatorial endorsement window (four days before the primary) and the fact that even Trump's explicitly stated preference failed to carry Feenstra to victory, which could suggest limits on Trump's primary power. Conservative outlets also minimized the significance of economic headwinds from tariffs and the Iran war that Democrats were exploiting.
Deep Dive
The Iowa Senate Democratic primary on June 2, 2026, reflected a broader tension within the Democratic Party about electoral strategy in Republican-leaning states. Democrats must pick up four seats to win a majority in the Senate, forcing the party to win in Republican-leaning states like Iowa. Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state, with Republican nominee Donald Trump winning Iowa in 2024 by 13 percentage points. According to the Des Moines Register, Wahls was 'seen as the liberal candidate' who 'argues that a union-supported progressive with a working-class message can cut through the noise and energize the Democratic base,' while Turek 'casts a more moderate image that his supporters believe will appeal to independents and disaffected Republicans.' Turek's decisive 25-point victory suggests Iowa Democratic primary voters prioritized perceived electability over ideological authenticity. However, this calculation faces a fundamental test: whether any Democrat can overcome Iowa's structural Republican advantage. Following Turek's victory, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted its rating of the Iowa Senate race from 'likely' Republican to 'lean' Republican, suggesting the race became incrementally more competitive but remained fundamentally difficult for Democrats. The shift reflected not a transformation of Iowa's politics but marginal improvement based on candidate quality and national conditions. The party hopes that Hinson, who has 'vowed to be the president's top ally in the Senate, may struggle at the ballot box amid some unpopular Trump administration policies, like tariffs.' The gamble is that economic headwinds — specifically Iowa's farm sector's exposure to tariffs and the ongoing Iran War's cost — will overcome partisan lean. Democrats say the Senate race could be buoyed by Auditor Rob Sand's strong gubernatorial bid, creating potential coattails. What Iowa Democrats chose to defer was the question of party direction. Wahls criticized Turek for getting support from VoteVets super PAC, 'an organization affiliated with Senate Democratic leadership and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer,' framing Turek as 'an extension of a party establishment.' Wahls leaned into 'an anti-establishment message that included criticism of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer,' while Turek focused messaging on economy and electability. Turek's victory indicates that in a state where Democrats are already underdogs, voters rejected the high-risk, high-reward strategy of an anti-establishment firebrand. The question ahead is whether Turek's measured approach can actually move Iowa numbers in November or whether he merely represents the maximum a moderate Democrat can achieve in a fundamentally Republican state.