Trump endorses Ken Paxton over John Cornyn in Texas Senate GOP runoff
Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas GOP runoff for U.S. Senate, one week before voting ends.
Objective Facts
Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas GOP runoff for U.S. Senate, one week before voting ends in the contentious and expensive primary. Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a May 26 runoff after neither won a majority of the vote in the March 3 primary, with Cornyn, in his fourth term, narrowly ahead of Paxton at 42%-41%. Trump wrote that Ken is 'a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas,' but of Cornyn said 'John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough'. Trump's last-minute move to back Paxton is an effort to essentially end the race after weeks of a bruising fight in a state Democrats see as a potential stretch pickup opportunity in November. The Texas race has become the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history, with both parties spending well over $100 million total so far.
Left-Leaning Perspective
Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic campaign arm, emphasized Paxton's scandals and argued that Trump's endorsement of Paxton over a candidate backed by $100 million from Republican establishment groups was self-defeating, citing data that 'one-in-four John Cornyn voters say they'll vote for James Talarico if Paxton is the nominee' and noting Talarico 'has never once had his own staff call the FBI on him'. Democrats strategically framed this as creating a 'perfect storm' to flip Texas, arguing a favorable national environment, a weakened GOP nominee, and shifting Hispanic and Latino voters could hand them the state. Political analysts and prediction markets treating the endorsement as evidence that Trump's move creates risk, with analysis stating 'the Texas GOP now looks even more likely to nominate a candidate who is deeply polarizing in the general election' and that 'Paxton could be a hard sell for independents wary of the president's record this term,' potentially keeping 'the seat in play for Democrats and upstart State Rep. James Talarico'. Prediction markets showed immediate movement after the endorsement, with Kalshi showing a 3-point gain for Talarico to 49 percent, and BetOnline showing 56.5 percent probability the Democrat will win in November. Left-leaning analysts portrayed the race as increasingly 'a loyalty test rather than a normal Senate runoff,' with Cornyn 'left trying to argue that incumbency still matters'. The left-leaning critique focuses on Trump prioritizing loyalty and personal grievances over electability, potentially handing Democrats a pickup opportunity in a long-held Republican state.
Right-Leaning Perspective
Trump's Truth Social statement praised Paxton's support for ending the Senate filibuster and passing the SAVE America Act voting restrictions bill, and criticized Cornyn for being 'very late in backing me' in his 2024 presidential campaign, saying 'Our Country needs Fighters, and also Loyalty to the Cause of Greatness'. The Trump-aligned perspective sees Paxton as a loyal soldier who led legal efforts to overturn the 2020 election and spoke at the pro-Trump rally preceding the Capitol riot, with Paxton having faced federal prosecution and impeachment like Trump, and maintaining strong support among the MAGA grassroots. Vice President JD Vance articulated the administration's rationale, saying the endorsement sends a 'message' to elected officials who fall 'out of step with voters or out of step with the president,' framing loyalty to the president's agenda as central to Republican identity. Sources familiar with the decision-making said Trump likes Paxton more and always has, and that Trump has been feeling emboldened after helping unseat Sen. Bill Cassidy on Saturday and Indiana state lawmakers earlier this month. Trump's supporters argue he believes Paxton is capable of defeating Talarico in the general election despite warnings from Senate Republican leadership, citing Trump's own success in Texas—winning by 14 points in 2024—as a vehicle for Paxton's November bid. While Trump's overall approval ratings have weakened, he remains deeply popular with Republican voters, giving his endorsements outsize power in primaries, and Trump has used the power of his endorsements as a tool to create incentives for political loyalty.
Deep Dive
Trump initially promised to intervene 'soon' after the March 3 primary to stop what he said 'cannot, for the good of the party, and our Country, be allowed to go on any longer,' but kept both campaigns on edge for months as the two camps spent nearly $25 million on advertising, bringing the total ad cost of the Republican primary to nearly $125 million, most from the pro-Cornyn side. Trump was initially ready to endorse Cornyn but was frustrated when his intentions were leaked, with allies calling to say a Cornyn endorsement would be a betrayal to the MAGA base; Paxton then made a 'Hail Mary' move on March 5, posting that he would consider dropping out if Senate Republicans abolished the filibuster to pass Trump's voting restrictions bill. A Republican strategist told The Hill that Trump appears to have prioritized loyalty over Senate control, stating 'I guess the president figured he doesn't need a GOP senate majority for the remainder of 2026 because he really no longer has one,' and that if Trump thought he could bend Senate leadership to his will on budget priorities 'he might want to quickly reassess his political positioning' as 'his leverage is now pretty much gone'. The endorsement immediately shifted prediction markets, with Kalshi showing a 3-point gain for Democrat Talarico to 49 percent and BetOnline showing 56.5 percent probability he will win in November. The race has been reframed as fundamentally 'a loyalty test rather than a normal Senate runoff,' with Cornyn unable to convince voters that incumbency and legislative record matter more than Trump's preference. The key unresolved question is whether Trump's endorsement will be enough to overcome Paxton's extensive baggage in a general election, and whether Democratic nominee Talarico can capitalize on Republican division to win a seat the party hasn't held since 1994.