Trump's approval ratings drop significantly amid economic and foreign policy challenges
Trump's economic approval rating fell to 31%, a career low, amid inflation and gas price surges linked to the Iran war.
Objective Facts
Donald Trump's approval rating for handling the economy has fallen to a new career low of 31% according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. A growing minority (45%, up 5 points in the past year) say they've cut back significantly on how much they drive, and overall, 63% say higher costs at the pump have caused at least some financial hardship in their household, including 15% who say it's severe. Just 36% approve of his handling of foreign affairs, and 63% who say his decisions on that front have hurt the United States' standing in the world is up 6 points since January. Seven in 10 say the president doesn't have a clear plan for handling the gas price situation, and a scant 24% approve of his handling of it. The share of Republicans who strongly approve of his job performance has dropped to 43%, from 52% in January.
Left-Leaning Perspective
Democratic critics framed the low approval as the result of Trump breaking campaign promises, with the DNC Rapid Response Director stating Trump promised to "lower costs on Day One" but "prices are soaring." The critique emphasizes that "working families are skipping meals, forgoing critical medical care, and depleting their savings as Trump doubles down on his disastrous economic policies," while "Democrats are working tirelessly to bring down prices and lower the cost-of-living." Democrats positioned themselves to capitalize on the economy heading into the 2026 midterms after finding success on the issue in 2025, even as Trump attempted to change the narrative on the economy. Polling showed that Congressional Republicans moved in lockstep with Trump during 2025, which helped explain why Democrats are now favored over Republicans 40% to 35% to handle the economy, with Democrats leading by 11 points among independents and by 15 points among Hispanics. Left-leaning analysis emphasizes Trump's failure to deliver on economic promises and frames his policies—particularly tariffs—as exacerbating cost-of-living pressures. Critics note that 75% of Americans, including 56% of Republicans, believe that Trump's tariffs are raising prices, with only 14% supporting additional tariffs. The left omits context about external factors like the Iran war's impact on global oil prices, focusing instead on the administration's policy decisions as the root cause of inflation and hardship.
Right-Leaning Perspective
Republican-aligned polling analyst Daron Shaw argued Trump "faces two difficult obstacles — the virtually unanimous and intractable opposition of Democrats and the stubbornness of high prices," and predicted "Republican officeholders think the economic benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill will kick in later this year, which will be critical for GOP prospects in the midterm elections." The White House rejected the poll's narrative by dismissing contemporary polling entirely: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and common-sense agenda. The president has already made historic progress not only in America, but around the world." White House officials contended that "polling shows Trump's decision to launch Operation Epic Fury is backed by a plurality of Americans, with especially strong support among Republicans and MAGA voters," and dismissed critics by stating "the MAGA base is not wavering one bit" despite "online commentators with large followings publicly disagreeing with the President's decision." Right-leaning defenders emphasized external constraints beyond Trump's control (Democratic obstruction, exogenous price pressures) and pointed to future policy payoffs to justify current hardship. Trump received 85% approval among all Republicans and 97% among Republicans identifying as MAGA supporters, suggesting continued party loyalty despite low national numbers. The right largely omits discussion of tariff policy's role in inflation and emphasizes that base support remains solid.
Deep Dive
The 65% who say Trump's policies have made the economy worse is the highest of his presidency, higher than the share who said the same about Democrat Joe Biden's policies at any point during his time in office. This represents a historic political vulnerability for Trump, who built his 2024 campaign on the promise of economic stewardship after voters blamed Biden for inflation. National gas prices have climbed to roughly $3.90 a gallon, compared with about $2.90 before U.S. strikes began on February 28, directly linking foreign policy decisions to everyday affordability. The confluence of the Iran war and existing inflation has created a compounding crisis that neither party successfully owns as a solution. The left correctly identifies that Trump's losses are concentrated among independents, not his base, with Independents opposing the war by more than two to one. Analysts warn that when voters in the center perceive politics as prioritizing "conflict over stability," it accelerates disengagement. This erosion—rather than softening inside Trump's base—represents the most serious electoral vulnerability for Republicans. Economic concerns and the Iran war together are driving this shift. The right accurately notes that Trump retains 85% Republican approval and 97% among MAGA supporters, meaning his coalition remains intact within the party—but that coalition may be insufficient for midterm success if it continues to shed independents. Democrats now lead 40% to 35% in generic ballot advantage for handling the economy, with an 11-point lead among independents and a 15-point lead among Hispanics. Both perspectives omit important nuances: The left downplays the genuine difficulty of fighting inflation after an unprecedented pandemic-driven stimulus without acknowledging inherited conditions. The right dismisses the role of tariffs in exacerbating price pressures and fails to explain how external price shocks justify breaking the campaign promise to lower costs immediately. Historically, presidential economic approval ratings at this level have foreshadowed significant midterm losses for the governing party. The 2026 midterms will hinge on whether conditions improve enough to shift sentiment before November, making gas prices, inflation readings, and Iran conflict developments the true deciding factors—not the messaging strategies of either party.