University of Montana president runs for Senate as independent

Steve Daines withdrew from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme to succeed him, dramatically reshaping the race after Bodnar's independent entry.

Objective Facts

Seth Bodnar, who resigned his presidency at the University of Montana to run for U.S. Senate as an independent, has officially launched his unconventional campaign against incumbent Republican Steve Daines. On the final day of candidate filing in Montana, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar filed to run as an independent in the U.S. Senate race to unseat Steve Daines. Two-term incumbent Steve Daines, who was re-elected in 2020 with 55.0% of the vote, withdrew from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed U.S District Attorney Kurt Alme to succeed him. Despite the state's recent tilt from purple to deep red, the races for their seats could be more in play now because of the way Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Ryan Zinke, both Republicans, gave up them up and chose their successors. In Daines' case, he withdrew his candidacy just minutes before the filing deadline. The 2026 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 6, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026.

Left-Leaning Perspective

Left-leaning outlets and Democratic figures focus heavily on the strategic threat Bodnar poses to their chances. Democrats have accused Bodnar and former Democratic U.S. Sen Jon Tester, who supports Bodnar, of creating a scenario in which the independent splits the non-Daines vote, ensuring a third term for Daines. Montana has never elected an Independent. The question is: why is he helping Daines? Democratic candidate Reilly Neill has been particularly vocal. The evidence Democrats cite is structural. An independent candidate with a Democratic candidate will split the non-Daines vote. It's an enormous challenge even if that opposition was united. I don't see how an independent candidate makes any sense, unless the Democrats stand down and support either directly or indirectly that candidate. The mission of the Montana Democratic Party is to support candidates who run as Democrats. Full stop. We do not support candidates outside of the party, and our bylaws prevent us from doing so. Michael Black Wolf, the tribal historic preservation officer for the Fort Belknap Indian Community, told MTN he would have preferred Bodnar join the Democratic primary instead of running as an independent. He said he's opposed to any suggestion that Montana Democrats should throw their support behind an independent candidacy. Left outlets largely omit discussion of Daines's surprise withdrawal as a potentially favorable development for an independent candidate in a three-way race, focusing instead on the vote-splitting harm to Democratic chances. They cite concerns about Bodnar's record on transgender athletes and tuition increases from his university tenure, providing ammunition to attack his credibility as a true independent.

Right-Leaning Perspective

Right-leaning commentary is split. Some conservative voices see Bodnar as a threat disguised as an outsider. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called Bodnar a "fake independent" and criticized him as a "champion" of allowing transgender athletes to participate in college sports. A conservative PAC took aim at him with an attack ad the day he resigned from his position as president of the University of Montana. The ad pins the blame on Bodnar for tuition hikes, allowing transgender athletes to participate in UM athletics and using his campus office to campaign. However, some Republicans and conservatives appear troubled by Daines and Zinke's last-minute withdrawals. Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty. Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty, says Roger Koopman, a former Republican legislator and Montana Public Service commissioner from Bozeman. Koopman says the party establishment's backroom dealing is a gift to Democrats and especially Seth Bodnar, who he says is a liberal running as an independent. Al Olszewski, a former state senator who is running for Zinke's seat, accused both Daines and Zinke of betraying the people of Montana and urged voters to reject their handpicked successors. We don't simply accept replacements selected by the deep state and D.C. for them to lord power over us, said Olszewski, a Republican. Conservative outlets emphasize Bodnar's liberal university record and ties to former Democratic Senator Tester, suggesting his independent candidacy masks Democratic sympathies. However, they largely avoid dwelling on Daines's strategic withdrawal or the anger it generated among the Republican base, instead pivoting to attack Bodnar's credibility. The right-wing narrative treats him as a crypto-Democrat using the independent label to exploit voter frustration with both parties.

Deep Dive

Bodnar resigned as president of the University of Montana in mid-January, a post he has held since 2018, overseeing a stabilization of enrollment after years of decline and racking up a list of other successes such as record gains in research expenditures. In an introductory campaign ad the former Army Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar unpacks his decision to run as an independent and not a Republican or Democrat. Montana's political landscape has shifted dramatically: Montana is considered to be a red state at the federal level, having not voted for a Democratic president since Bill Clinton's plurality victory in 1992. Recently, the state has also been trending red on a statewide level. The party hasn't controlled any statewide offices following the defeat of three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester two years ago. The most significant development is Daines withdrawing from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme to succeed him. At 4:52 p.m. Kurt Alme filed to run, and 3 minutes later Steve Daines withdrew. At 5:02 p.m, Daines announced his withdrawal and endorsed Alme. Daines later said withdrawing earlier could have enticed a prominent Democrat like Tester to enter the race. This timing reshapes the race dynamics. Pre-withdrawal polling showed in a three-way race, Daines received 51.7% of support, with Neill coming in second at 25%, and an independent Bodnar receiving nearly 16%. With Daines off the ballot and Alme as the Republican nominee, the math becomes less clear. Democrats focus on vote-splitting harm, but Bodnar's entry may have paradoxically benefited from Daines's withdrawal by eliminating the strongest Republican incumbent. What each side gets right: Democrats correctly identify that the first challenge for Bodnar is to consolidate the non-Republican support in the race. That is not guaranteed: former state Rep. Reilly Neill (D), one of the possible Democratic nominees, has already been critical of Bodnar's bid. Republicans correctly note that Bodnar's decision to run without party backing underscores Democrats' diminished status. The party hasn't controlled any statewide offices following the defeat of three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester two years ago. What they omit: The left avoids discussing how Daines's surprise exit removes a heavily favored incumbent, making the seat genuinely competitive. The right avoids acknowledging that Bodnar's ability to consolidate anti-Alme votes may be his real pathway to victory, not Democratic vote-splitting. Daines said he waited so that a prominent Democrat like Tester wouldn't want to enter the race because Daines was dropping out. This suggests the Republican establishment feared a well-funded Democratic challenge more than an independent, complicating the narrative both sides present about Bodnar's candidacy.

OBJ SPEAKING

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University of Montana president runs for Senate as independent

Steve Daines withdrew from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme to succeed him, dramatically reshaping the race after Bodnar's independent entry.

Mar 26, 2026· Updated Mar 28, 2026
What's Going On

Seth Bodnar, who resigned his presidency at the University of Montana to run for U.S. Senate as an independent, has officially launched his unconventional campaign against incumbent Republican Steve Daines. On the final day of candidate filing in Montana, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar filed to run as an independent in the U.S. Senate race to unseat Steve Daines. Two-term incumbent Steve Daines, who was re-elected in 2020 with 55.0% of the vote, withdrew from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed U.S District Attorney Kurt Alme to succeed him. Despite the state's recent tilt from purple to deep red, the races for their seats could be more in play now because of the way Senator Steve Daines and Congressman Ryan Zinke, both Republicans, gave up them up and chose their successors. In Daines' case, he withdrew his candidacy just minutes before the filing deadline. The 2026 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 6, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026.

Left says: Democrats have accused Bodnar and former Democratic U.S. Sen Jon Tester, who supports Bodnar, of creating a scenario in which the independent splits the non-Daines vote, ensuring a third term for Daines. Montana has never elected an Independent. The question is: why is he helping Daines?
Right says: The National Republican Senatorial Committee called Bodnar a "fake independent" and criticized him as a "champion" of allowing transgender athletes to participate in college sports. Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty. Koopman says the party establishment's backroom dealing is a gift to Democrats and especially Seth Bodnar, who he says is a liberal running as an independent.
✓ Common Ground
Both political sides acknowledge growing economic anxiety in Montana, with farmers hurt by Trump's tariffs, fertilizer prices soaring, and the cost of housing and healthcare squeezing voters.
Both Democrats and some Republicans express concern about erosion of traditional party politics and voter disillusionment with establishment figures, though they disagree on whether Bodnar represents a solution or exploitation of that sentiment.
Political insiders on both sides debated whether an independent in a red state or a party-backed Democrat would be better equipped to face Daines — a popular incumbent who is well connected within the national Republican Party. This reflects shared uncertainty about which path offers the best chance to unseat the Republican.
Objective Deep Dive

Bodnar resigned as president of the University of Montana in mid-January, a post he has held since 2018, overseeing a stabilization of enrollment after years of decline and racking up a list of other successes such as record gains in research expenditures. In an introductory campaign ad the former Army Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar unpacks his decision to run as an independent and not a Republican or Democrat. Montana's political landscape has shifted dramatically: Montana is considered to be a red state at the federal level, having not voted for a Democratic president since Bill Clinton's plurality victory in 1992. Recently, the state has also been trending red on a statewide level. The party hasn't controlled any statewide offices following the defeat of three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester two years ago.

The most significant development is Daines withdrawing from the Republican primary just minutes before the primary filing deadline and endorsed Kurt Alme to succeed him. At 4:52 p.m. Kurt Alme filed to run, and 3 minutes later Steve Daines withdrew. At 5:02 p.m, Daines announced his withdrawal and endorsed Alme. Daines later said withdrawing earlier could have enticed a prominent Democrat like Tester to enter the race. This timing reshapes the race dynamics. Pre-withdrawal polling showed in a three-way race, Daines received 51.7% of support, with Neill coming in second at 25%, and an independent Bodnar receiving nearly 16%. With Daines off the ballot and Alme as the Republican nominee, the math becomes less clear. Democrats focus on vote-splitting harm, but Bodnar's entry may have paradoxically benefited from Daines's withdrawal by eliminating the strongest Republican incumbent.

What each side gets right: Democrats correctly identify that the first challenge for Bodnar is to consolidate the non-Republican support in the race. That is not guaranteed: former state Rep. Reilly Neill (D), one of the possible Democratic nominees, has already been critical of Bodnar's bid. Republicans correctly note that Bodnar's decision to run without party backing underscores Democrats' diminished status. The party hasn't controlled any statewide offices following the defeat of three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester two years ago. What they omit: The left avoids discussing how Daines's surprise exit removes a heavily favored incumbent, making the seat genuinely competitive. The right avoids acknowledging that Bodnar's ability to consolidate anti-Alme votes may be his real pathway to victory, not Democratic vote-splitting. Daines said he waited so that a prominent Democrat like Tester wouldn't want to enter the race because Daines was dropping out. This suggests the Republican establishment feared a well-funded Democratic challenge more than an independent, complicating the narrative both sides present about Bodnar's candidacy.

◈ Tone Comparison

Both left and right outlets use language questioning Bodnar's authenticity—calling him a "fake independent"—but from opposite angles. Democrats emphasize his ties to Tester and liberal university policies as proof he is a secret Democrat; Republicans claim the same university record proves he is authentically liberal despite the independent label. Both sides frame Bodnar as deceptive, but disagree about which deception he is committing.

✕ Key Disagreements
Whether Bodnar is genuinely independent or a disguised Democratic operative
Left: Democrats have accused Bodnar and former Democratic U.S. Sen Jon Tester, who supports Bodnar, of creating a scenario in which the independent splits the non-Daines vote, ensuring a third term for Daines. Democrats see Tester's backing as evidence Bodnar is a tool to divide Democratic votes.
Right: The National Republican Senatorial Committee called Bodnar a "fake independent" and criticized him as a "champion" of allowing transgender athletes to participate in college sports. Republicans argue his university record reveals liberal ideology hidden behind independent label.
Democratic strategy regarding Bodnar's candidacy
Left: The mission of the Montana Democratic Party is to support candidates who run as Democrats. Full stop. We do not support candidates outside of the party, and our bylaws prevent us from doing so. Democrats refuse to throw support behind Bodnar despite vote-splitting concerns.
Right: Some Republican voices accused former Democratic Senator Jon Tester of orchestrating Bodnar's run to keep certain people out of races, saying "They obviously did this to keep certain people out of these races. It wasn't an accident." Republicans see Democratic strategy as deliberately fragmented.
Daines's last-minute withdrawal and its legitimacy
Left: Democrats cite Daines's withdrawal as part of a coordinated Republican establishment scheme to bypass primary competition and rig outcomes in their favor.
Right: Some Republicans say Montanans are getting very indignant about what they see as out and out dishonesty, with Republican Al Olszewski saying "We don't simply accept replacements selected by the deep state and D.C. for them to lord power over us." Right-wing populists blame Republican establishment, not Democrats.