VP Vance Leads 2028 Republican Presidential Preference Poll at CPAC

Vice President JD Vance topped CPAC's 2028 presidential straw poll for the second consecutive year, securing 53 percent of votes from nearly 1,600 attendees.

Objective Facts

Vice President JD Vance topped CPAC's straw poll on Saturday for the second year in a row, receiving 53 percent of the votes cast by nearly 1,600 attendees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second with 35 percent of the vote. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied for third place at 2 percent. This represents a dramatic rise for Rubio, who captured just 3 percent last year and has risen in prominence through high-stakes foreign policy work including the administration's actions in Venezuela and Iran. The poll serves as a bellwether – albeit not necessarily an accurate one – for who might ultimately become the Republican nominee.

Left-Leaning Perspective

Democratic leaders are increasingly looking past Trump and at Vice President Vance, with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear traveling to Vance's home county in Ohio to argue the vice president had abandoned the communities he wrote about in his memoir, claiming "Hillbilly Elegy" had "trafficked in tired stereotypes" and was "really hillbilly hate". Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro singled out Vance in November while arguing the Trump administration did not care about working people, saying "At least with Donald Trump, he's transparent about that. JD Vance is a total phony." Some Democrats have coalesced around California Gov. Gavin Newsom as a strong candidate because of his aggressive strategy in going after Republicans, with Newsom coining the nickname "JD 'Just Dance' Vance" on social media and mocking the vice president's appearance, saying Vance "grew a beard and lost his spine". Democratic strategist Lis Smith has argued Democrats need to "prepare for" a post-Trump era, noting "Right now, JD Vance is a clear front-runner for the 2028 nomination. And so we should begin defining him — not in 2027, not in 2028 — but today." The Democratic strategy treats Vance's CPAC dominance as validation of the need to build an early counter-narrative. Democrats are framing their criticism as preemptive opposition research, but notably, most criticism focuses on alleged hypocrisy regarding working-class advocacy rather than policy substance. The left largely omits discussion of Vance's substantive policy positions or his role in the Trump administration's Iran war, instead emphasizing perceived character flaws and his memoir.

Right-Leaning Perspective

A decade ago, Jessica Luebbers could not have imagined supporting Marco Rubio for president due to his 2016 efforts to stop Trump, but as she and other Trump supporters gathered at CPAC, she said she hoped Trump would pass the torch to his former rival in 2028, saying "I was a little skeptical when Trump picked Rubio (for secretary of state) but, man, he has knocked it out of the park." The growing comfort with Rubio was captured in CPAC's straw poll. Paul Empson, a 58-year-old evangelical Christian from Fort Worth, said he voted for Vance because he sees him as aligned with the MAGA movement and was drawn to the vice president's frequent references to Christian faith, saying "He's a real, genuine person, and he's also willing to proclaim his faith in Jesus Christ in public." Right-leaning outlets report Vance has been the heir apparent to Trump since becoming his running mate in 2024, though Trump's recent praise of Rubio's diplomatic work has introduced speculation, with one Republican fundraiser telling The Hill "Trump knows this is playing in the backdrop, and he's struggling with it. That's why he keeps asking people what they're thinking." The Washington Examiner notes Vance dominated the survey for the second straight year at 53 percent. Right-leaning coverage emphasizes Vance's consistency with MAGA ideology, his Christian faith appeals to evangelical voters, and Rubio's dramatic improvement as validation of Trump administration competency. Conservative outlets focus on the succession narrative within the Trump coalition rather than engaging with Democratic criticisms. The right largely ignores broader questions about CPAC's representativeness or the demographic narrowness of the straw poll's base.

Deep Dive

The CPAC straw poll result on March 28-29, 2026, reflects a Republican Party at an inflection point. Less than eight months remain until November's midterm elections, and Republicans are hoping to defend their congressional majorities. Trump's approval numbers have sunk since his return to office in 2025. The poll occurring during Trump's absence from CPAC for the first time in a decade, as the war with Iran rages on and he faces pressure to tamp down surging oil and gas prices ahead of the midterms, signals a party in transition rather than consolidated unity. The upcoming midterms were a prominent topic of conversation, though Trump's war with Iran dominated the weekend-long slate of events, with attendees divided between support for Trump's war and the MAGA movement's past stance against overseas interventionism. Vance's decline from 61 percent last year to 53 percent this year—while still dominant—suggests erosion among the most conservative base. Rubio's surge from 3 percent to 35 percent is the real story, indicating Trump's cultivation of Rubio as an alternative without explicitly abandoning Vance. Both men served together in the Senate and their chiefs of staff worked together there, and Rubio has explicitly endorsed Vance, telling Vanity Fair he would be "one of the first people to support" him. This suggests a managed scenario where either could be acceptable to Trump, rather than genuine conflict. The Democratic response—focusing criticism almost exclusively on Vance while largely ignoring Rubio—indicates Democratic strategists view Vance as the more vulnerable general election opponent. What remains unresolved: whether Trump will formally endorse a successor before 2028, and whether Vance's family circumstances will affect his candidacy. Vance has not made up his mind whether he will run in 2028, with reports that he and his wife are expecting their fourth child in the coming months. The CPAC straw poll captures a moment of maximum uncertainty—a conservative base willing to nominate Vance while giving Trump clear signals that alternatives exist, and Democratic opposition that has begun but remains largely ad hominem rather than substantive.

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VP Vance Leads 2028 Republican Presidential Preference Poll at CPAC

Vice President JD Vance topped CPAC's 2028 presidential straw poll for the second consecutive year, securing 53 percent of votes from nearly 1,600 attendees.

Mar 29, 2026· Updated Mar 30, 2026
What's Going On

Vice President JD Vance topped CPAC's straw poll on Saturday for the second year in a row, receiving 53 percent of the votes cast by nearly 1,600 attendees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in second with 35 percent of the vote. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied for third place at 2 percent. This represents a dramatic rise for Rubio, who captured just 3 percent last year and has risen in prominence through high-stakes foreign policy work including the administration's actions in Venezuela and Iran. The poll serves as a bellwether – albeit not necessarily an accurate one – for who might ultimately become the Republican nominee.

Left says: Democratic leaders are increasingly focusing criticism on Vance rather than Trump, with Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear arguing that Vance abandoned the communities detailed in his memoir and that "Hillbilly Elegy" was "hillbilly hate". Gov. Gavin Newsom has dubbed Vance "JD 'Just Dance' Vance" and mocked his appearance, saying he "grew a beard and lost his spine".
Right says: The growing comfort with Rubio among conservatives was captured in CPAC's annual straw poll of potential 2028 contenders. Vance has been seen as the heir apparent to Trump since becoming his running mate in 2024, though the president's recent praise of Rubio's diplomatic work has introduced fresh speculation.
✓ Common Ground
Both left and right acknowledge that while the CPAC straw poll is a bellwether for conservative sentiment, it is "not necessarily an accurate" predictor of the eventual Republican nominee.
Several voices across the spectrum recognize that Vance's status as heir apparent since 2024 is now being complicated by Trump's public praise of Rubio's diplomatic work, creating genuine uncertainty about Trump's ultimate preference.
Both CPAC attendees and some Democratic observers appear open to the possibility that Vance and Rubio could run together on the same ticket.
Objective Deep Dive

The CPAC straw poll result on March 28-29, 2026, reflects a Republican Party at an inflection point. Less than eight months remain until November's midterm elections, and Republicans are hoping to defend their congressional majorities. Trump's approval numbers have sunk since his return to office in 2025. The poll occurring during Trump's absence from CPAC for the first time in a decade, as the war with Iran rages on and he faces pressure to tamp down surging oil and gas prices ahead of the midterms, signals a party in transition rather than consolidated unity. The upcoming midterms were a prominent topic of conversation, though Trump's war with Iran dominated the weekend-long slate of events, with attendees divided between support for Trump's war and the MAGA movement's past stance against overseas interventionism.

Vance's decline from 61 percent last year to 53 percent this year—while still dominant—suggests erosion among the most conservative base. Rubio's surge from 3 percent to 35 percent is the real story, indicating Trump's cultivation of Rubio as an alternative without explicitly abandoning Vance. Both men served together in the Senate and their chiefs of staff worked together there, and Rubio has explicitly endorsed Vance, telling Vanity Fair he would be "one of the first people to support" him. This suggests a managed scenario where either could be acceptable to Trump, rather than genuine conflict. The Democratic response—focusing criticism almost exclusively on Vance while largely ignoring Rubio—indicates Democratic strategists view Vance as the more vulnerable general election opponent.

What remains unresolved: whether Trump will formally endorse a successor before 2028, and whether Vance's family circumstances will affect his candidacy. Vance has not made up his mind whether he will run in 2028, with reports that he and his wife are expecting their fourth child in the coming months. The CPAC straw poll captures a moment of maximum uncertainty—a conservative base willing to nominate Vance while giving Trump clear signals that alternatives exist, and Democratic opposition that has begun but remains largely ad hominem rather than substantive.

◈ Tone Comparison

The right employs language of authenticity, loyalty, and movement alignment, building Vance up through positive associations with Christian faith and MAGA consistency. The left uses language of betrayal and inauthenticity, attacking Vance's character and personal integrity rather than his policy positions. Where the right speaks of Vance as "genuine," the left dismisses him as a "phony"—a fundamentally different mode of engagement focused on personal rather than ideological critique.

✕ Key Disagreements
Vance's authenticity and consistency regarding working-class concerns
Left: Democrats argue Vance has "abandoned the communities that he wrote about" in his memoir and his book trafficked in harmful stereotypes rather than genuine concern.
Right: Conservative voters argue Vance is "a real, genuine person" who has proven his alignment with MAGA through actions and willingness to publicly express Christian faith.
Vance's positioning relative to Trump
Left: Democrats view Vance as an independent political figure worthy of early opposition and "defining" before the 2028 race heats up.
Right: Conservatives view Vance primarily as Trump's designated heir who will "carry the party torch" once Trump leaves office.
The significance of Rubio's 32-point improvement
Left: Democrats generally ignore Rubio's rise, focusing criticism exclusively on Vance as the clear frontrunner.
Right: Conservatives interpret Rubio's gain as evidence that Trump is genuinely uncertain about succession and is "struggling" with the choice, keeping both men available.