Illinois is a solidly Democratic state (voted D in last three presidential cycles). Pritzker leads Darren Bailey 54.3% to 34% in head-to-head polling. The race reflects broader national tensions over crime, taxation, immigration enforcement, and Trump administration policies, making it a bellwether for Democratic governor strength in blue states.
Darren Bailey is a third-generation farmer, former Illinois state representative (2019-2021) and state senator (2021-2023) from rural Clay County (Xenia area). He is the Republican nominee for governor in 2026, seeking a rematch against incumbent Pritzker after losing by 12.5 percentage points in 2022. Bailey gained prominence during COVID-19 for challenging Governor Pritzker's mask mandates and business closures. He is described by news outlets as holding far-right political views, opposes abortion rights, and has criticized Pritzker on taxes, government spending, public safety, and affordability. In his 2026 campaign, Bailey has pivoted toward suburban voters and claims to have moderated his tone after a family tragedy in October 2025.
Bailey is 'too conservative' for Illinois; his 2022 loss (55% to 42%) shows voters rejected his far-right ideology
Pritzker funded ads in 2022 that subtly targeted GOP base by asserting Bailey was 'too conservative.' Pritzker has continued to criticize Bailey's candidacy in 2026.
Bailey is 'a disaster in the suburbs' and performed poorly there in 2022 (losing by 20+ percentage points), making him unelectable statewide
Dabrowski's 2026 primary campaign emphasized Bailey's 2022 suburban underperformance as evidence he cannot win a general election.